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It is important to realize that in poker, as in life, things are not always as they appear. In poker, one way this concept manifests itself is in the form of bluffing. The vast majority of poker players, especially those who frequent small-stakes cash games and tournaments, think the optimal winning strategy is rigid, tight, and aggressive.
While winning most of the pots that belong to you, plus a few more when your opponents play poorly, is a nice way to keep variance low and to have an edge, that edge will consistently be small. When playing against players who are not world-class (which will almost always be the case), you will win significantly more money by playing in a manner that exploits their sub-optimal tendencies. This usually means getting maximum value from your premium hands (as many recreational players already do) while also stealing pots that do not belong to you (which many recreational players do not do).
I do not want you to get the idea that playing in a generally tight, aggressive style is bad. The problem is that this straightforward strategy does not maximally exploit other tight, aggressive players. At this point in time, almost every poker player has studied one of the now-outdated books that advocate playing mostly premium hands. These players are excellent at being patient and getting paid off when they are fortunate enough to make the nuts against their oblivious opponents. These sporadic large wins are enough to beat the worst players in the small-stakes games for a small amount.
As you move up, however, you will face fewer and fewer bad players to the point that when you reach the medium and high stakes, there will rarely be an obvious, terrible player at your table. Most middle- and high-stakes players strive to ensure they do not make the blunders that the worst players make. But this tendency to avoid appearing dumb opens the door for you to steal pots when these tight, aggressive players do not have a strong hand, and occasionally when they have a strong hand but become convinced that you have the effective nuts.
When looking at graphs of winning online poker players, tracking programs display a green line (the total profit), a red line (the non-showdown winnings), and a blue line (the showdown winnings). Most winning small-stakes cash game players have a highly positive blue line (when they go to showdown) and a breakeven or negative red line (when they win by making their opponents fold). This implies that to beat the worst players, they play tightly (giving up small pots and letting your red line go negative) and get paid off with premium hands (making for a largely positive blue line).
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Those who win at the middle- and high-stakes games often have a similar, but inverse, graph, with a positive red line and a negative or break-even blue line. These players win by making their opponents fold incorrectly, meaning they successfully bluff way more often. When they happen to play large pots, they will frequently be an underdog, but they steal enough small pots to more than make up for their losses.
In general, you will find that each specific player has a point in the hand where they act in an honest manner, betting with strong hands and checking with marginal and weak hands. Some players act honestly as soon as they put a chip in the pot. They raise their strong hands, limp their marginal hands, and fold their junk. Others raise preflop with all hands they deem respectable but then only continuation bet the flop when they have what they believe to be a strong holding. Many players in today’s game continuation bet the flop with a wide range but then play the turn in an honest manner, only betting when they are confident that they have the best hand, opting to check with their trash and marginal hands. More maniacal players are willing to play in an aggressive manner all the way to the river.
All you have to do against these players is figure out when their checks indicate weakness, and then apply an amount of pressure that will result in them folding the vast majority of their range, which will result in your red line (non-showdown winnings) going through the roof. ♠
Jonathan Little is a professional poker player with over $7 million in live tournament earnings, best-selling author of 15 educational poker books, and 2019 GPI Poker Personality of the Year. If you want to increase your poker skills and learn to crush the games, check out his training site PokerCoaching.com. Click here to try PokerCoaching.com for free.
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Card Player Magazine, available in print and online, covers poker strategy, poker news, online and casino poker, and poker legislation. Sign up today for a digital subscription to access more than 800 magazine issues and get 26 new issues per year!
Please let me encourage you to reach out to me with article ideas and questions for future columns. You can tweet to me at @FossilMan, or send me a message at info@fossilmanpoker.com.
You’re playing some no-limit holdem. It could be a cash game, or a tournament. A first player bets, let’s say 10 units (could be $10, $100, 10,000 tournament chips, whatever). Their opponent, the second player, now raises all-in for 25 units.
As you watch, the first player now erupts in anguish! They can’t believe this happened and now they don’t know what to do. They may start asking the second player, “what do you have?” Then the first player spends the next several minutes agonizing over their decision.
I don’t know about you, but I hate when this happens. In fact, I feel like the first player is stealing those minutes from my life. I understand they honestly don’t know what to do. However, I still hate them for wasting our time.
Their mistake is not whether they get it right with respect to calling or folding to this all-in raise. Their mistake was in not thinking ahead.
Every time you make a decision in poker, you should be thinking ahead about what happens next. When you raise preflop, you should have a good idea how you will respond if somebody reraises, and what you will do on various flops. When you bet the flop, you should already be thinking about how you’ll respond to a check-raise, or what you will do with various turn cards that might be dealt. It’s not mandatory that you have every single step fully mapped out in advance, but you should have some idea how you will handle the more likely possibilities.
The big mistake made by our first player is they did not consider one of the most likely possibilities. What will they do if the second player raises all-in for 15 units more? If instead they had bet 10 units, and the second player had raised all-in for 200 units, that is probably unexpected. I understand why they need some extra time to figure out what to do. But when the raise is a more typical amount, that is something they should have thought about before betting.
It’s not just that this failure to think ahead can waste our time. It will also lead to making some huge mistakes. I often see a player call a bet or raise, where it is clear they do not believe their opponent. They think the other player is bluffing, or over-valuing their hand. But then, when the opponent makes a bigger bet on the next street, after the dealer puts out an apparently meaningless card, they agonize and fold.
Again, the mistake is not the fold. Nor was it the previous call. The mistake was in the combination of these two decisions, the result of not thinking ahead. When they called the first bet, what was their plan for the next street? The truth is, many players don’t have a plan. They make each decision in isolation.
Not planning ahead almost guarantees they will make a mistake. Imagine I choose to defend my big blind with 10–9 against your preflop raise. You bet the flop of K-10–6, and I call. We get dealt an offsuit 2 on the turn, and you go all-in for a pot-sized bet. My only smart play is to call, because if I am going to fold now, why did I call on the flop? It certainly made no sense to call on the flop hoping to catch another ten, or an nine. That is only five outs, not enough to make a smart call. And if I think you have me beat, then I should have folded on the flop.
Yet, I see this exact mistake all the time. The player calls on the flop, and then folds on the turn after an extended tank. Often, it is for risk averse reasons. They just don’t want to risk so many chips. However, whatever their reason, they should have figured that out on the flop, and folded then.
In my experience, players who bet the flop, and have only a pot-sized bet left, will often go all-in on the turn. If you believe they have you beat, then fold on the flop. If you don’t believe this, then call now, and again on the turn. Your decisions should add up to a sensible plan. Failing to think ahead all but guarantees an inferior result.
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Now don’t play slowly, but do take a few extra seconds, and think ahead. While you’re waiting for other players to act, that’s the perfect time to be thinking ahead. What will I do if they check to me, what will I do if they bet, etc.? The more you think ahead, the better you will play, and the better your results will become. Think ahead, and play smart! ♠
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Greg Raymer is the 2004 World Series of Poker main event champion, winner of numerous major titles, and has more than $7 million in earnings. He recently authored FossilMan’s Winning Tournament Strategies, available from D&B Publishing, Amazon, and other retailers. He is sponsored by Blue Shark Optics, YouStake, and ShareMyPair. To contact Greg please tweet @FossilMan or visit his website.
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